What if Jonathan and Buhari affirmation victory?

 
Is Nigeria branch for an acclamation crisis evocative of the 2010-2011 Ivorian acclamation crisis that plunged the West African nation into abandon and at the border of addition civilian war? As we arch for elections in a few days, the present atmosphere of all-overs and abhorrence engendered
by the two capital political parties, the Peoples Democratic Party and the All Progressives Congress, and their candidates could circling into abandon if the two arch candidates, the incumbent, President Goodluck Jonathan, and the capital challenger, Muhammadu Buhari, abort to acquire defeat afterwards the votes are counted. For Nigerians accustomed with the arguable accession to the 2015 elections and the atmosphere of distrust, accusations and counter-accusations adjoin the Independent Civic Balloter Agency by the political parties, what is the affirmation that they will acquire any aftereffect issued by INEC? Does this not heighten the achievability of the candidates laying claims to achievement and throwing the country into chaos?
Already, there are fears that the aftereffect of the elections may even advance to the country’s disintegration. Given the blackmail of abandon that pervades the absolute country, if Jonathan and Buhari both lay affirmation to achievement or one of them refuses to acquire defeat, the altercation arising from such a brain-teaser may accomplish the Ivorian bearings assume like a child’s play. The acclamation abandon that threw Ivory Coast into a abreast accompaniment of war is a adverse archetype of what may appear if political parties and politicians in our country abide the agitated address that has authentic the 2015 elections.
The abhorrence campaigns, advertising and abandon that acquire characterised the 2015 elections resemble the situations in Ivory Coast and the Kenyan acclamation abandon in 2007. Given the blood-soaked aisle of abandon of our contempo history, acclamation abandon may abuse our accumulated existent. In 2011, Ivory Coast erupted into abandon afterwards a acknowledged election. Laurent Gbagbo, the again President of Ivory Coast back 2000 (now adverse balloon at the All-embracing Criminal Court, The Hague), had been proclaimed the champ of the 2010 election, the aboriginal in the country in 10 years, in a arguable circumstance. The activity candidate, Alassane Ouattara, who is the country’s accepted President and a amount of countries, organisations and apple leaders claimed Ouattara had won the election. Afore this, a built-in crisis had occurred if Gbagbo had banned to acquire defeat.
In December 2010, the arch of the Ivorian Agency Electorale Indépendante (the agnate of our own INEC) had appear conditional after-effects assuming that Ouattara had won the acclamation in the additional annular with 54.1 per cent of the vote, adjoin 45.9 per cent for Gbagbo; he appear that assembly was 81.09 per cent. After-effects had been accepted and again adjourned for days, above the deadline. In a affecting about-face of the event, the President of the Built-in Council (a physique that was beheld by the activity as favouring Gbagbo, again took to the airwaves to say that the balloter agency had no ascendancy larboard to advertise any results, because it had already absent its borderline to advertise them, and appropriately the after-effects were declared invalid.
But according to the Built-in Council put calm by Gbagbo and constituted by his allies, they insisted that the casual of the borderline meant that alone the Built-in Council was “authorised to advertise decisions on the contested results.” It was broadly accepted that the Court would affair a cardinal favouring Gbagbo, although the balloter agency after-effects had adumbrated that Gbagbo could alone be accustomed with achievement if hundreds of bags of votes were invalidated. The Built-in Council anon afterwards declared Gbagbo the winner, blank the astriction that had absorbed the country. The Council had controversially appear that the after-effects in seven arctic regions were cancelled, and on that base declared the aftereffect about in favour of Gbagbo, who was accustomed with 51.45 per cent of the votes while Ouattara had 48.55 per cent.
But on the base of the balloter commission’s results, Ouattara had maintained that he was “the adopted President” and that the Built-in Council had “abused its authority, the accomplished apple knows it, and I am apologetic for my country’s image.” He had the bright abetment of the all-embracing association including ECOWAS for his affirmation to victory, but top admiral in the aggressive appeared to angle durably abaft Gbagbo. With no bright champ and both candidates captivation stubbornly to achievement claims, the country danced on the brink. In the bosom of aberrant insecurity, Gbagbo was affidavit in for addition five-year appellation in 2011 defiantly declaring: “I will abide to plan with all the countries of the world, but I will never accord up our sovereignty.” Meanwhile, at a auberge in Central Abdijan, Ouattara himself was affidavit in alone anon after, adage that “Ivory Coast is now in acceptable hands”.
After months of attempted agreement and desultory violence, the crisis entered a absolute date as Ouattara’s armament began a aggressive abhorrent in which they bound acquired ascendancy of a lot of of the country and besieged key targets in Abidjan, the country’s better city. All-embracing organisations had appear abundant animal rights violations, and the UN undertook its own aggressive activity with the declared cold to assure itself and civilians. A cogent footfall in bringing an end to the crisis occurred in April 2011 afterward the abduction and arrest of Gbagbo by pro-Ouattara armament backed by French forces.
Mrs Gbagbo who is currently confined appellation for her role in the acclamation crisis was appear to acquire instigated abandon by acclamation rallies area she aerated up abhorrence campaigns adjoin the opposition. She was aswell appear to acquire kept a claimed army that abashed and addled Quattara’s loyalists. At her balloon endure month, assemblage recalled the atrocities of all the protagonists and Mrs Gbagbo’s abhorrent role in a tragedy that about signalled an end to the country’s existence.
I acquire taken the affliction to burrow into the Ivorian crisis because if we are not accurate as a country, we may be headed that way in the next few weeks. Can our country acquiesce a re-enactment of the Ivorian acclamation imbroglio? Every patriot who loves this country acquire to ensure that political abhorrence campaigns, speeches and advertising are not accustomed to snowball into abandon during and afterwards the elections.
I aswell acquire 18-carat fears that the akin of partisanship getting apparent by agencies and institutions of government that are empowered to advance neutrality in times of civic crisis could aggravate the bearings if they become fractional and abutment one of the candidates. There acquire been growing apropos that the armed armament and law administration agencies acquire become accoutrement in the easily of a assertive party/candidate. The accusation, if true, is not acceptable for the angel of the forces. I will admonish the aegis armament not to acquiesce themselves to be acclimated by any of the parties. At times like this, we will charge the aegis forces, INEC and the attorneys to be trusted to accommodate the bare neutrality that will avoid causeless crisis afore and afterwards elections. As I wrote on this cavalcade endure week, we will aswell charge all Nigerians to save the country from an approaching collapse. While we apprehend INEC to conduct chargeless and fair elections, we aswell apprehend the candidates to acquire the after-effects address in apperception that we acquire no added country to alarm our own.